Friday, January 21, 2011

BUSTING UNIONS? VIA CHAPTER 9

What do you think?. Bankruptcy in the City of Vallejo, California
followed  failed Collective Bargaining. Given the financial condition of most
Muncipalities and States is it not plausible this may become a trend.
This means that the Police, Firefighters Teachers, and Muncipal Workers
are the main targets. What happens in the absense of these services,
civil unrest, anarchy. Bad enough that their houses are under water with
negative equity, now it seems no income.

Why is it that Governments at all levels can screw up mightly and yet in
their holier than thou attitude hold their employees responsible and treat
them like garbage. Perhaps if somebody done an Audit they would find
the real reasons behind the Bankruptcy. One good guess. They invested
in Morgage Backed Securities and lost their shirts. Just a perusal of thier
Financial Statements shows their Liabilities went from $35million to $239
Million just after the Real Estate Crash. Of course their is lots of footnotes
pertaining to "Other Investments" but they never really explained why the
hugh difference in numbers, its almost like they decided to go the Casino
one day and make a hugh investment in Real Estate and lost.

What scares me and what should scare you is an acceleration of this trend
as the Economy worsens. Next they will want the Bread off your table and
feel justified in doing so.



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-06/busting-unions-with-bankruptcy-not-chapter-9-way-commentary-by-joe-mysak.html


Busting Unions With Bankruptcy Isn't Chapter 9 Way: Joe Mysak

Bloomberg Opinion
Chapter 9 municipal bankruptcies fell in 2010, to six from 10 the previous year.
Who went bust? A couple of sanitary and improvement districts in Nebraska, a hospital in Idaho, a Texas municipal- utility district, a Missouri community-improvement district and a toll road in South Carolina, according to James Spiotto, a partner at Chapman & Cutler in Chicago.
In the municipal market, those entities, most of them used for real-estate development, are typical of the ones who file for Chapter 9.
There are several reasons for that. Keep them in mind as more people champion Chapter 9 as the new best way to fillet public-employee union salaries and benefits.
There’s nothing easy, or convenient, or cheap, or quick, or even predictable about Chapter 9. Those who talk about municipal bankruptcy as if it is any of those things, and the blogosphere is alive with such opinions right now, don’t know what they are talking about.
Even the lawyers who specialize in it don’t recommend municipal bankruptcy.
“Filing for bankruptcy protection under Chapter 9 should be considered a last resort, to be effected only after every effort has been made to avoid it,” wrote John Knox and Marc Levinson, partners at Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe LLP in San Francisco in their 2009 publication, “Municipal Bankruptcy: Avoiding and Using Chapter 9 in Times of Fiscal Stress.” Orrick is counsel to Vallejo, California, which in May 2008 entered bankruptcy and isn’t out yet.
Negotiation Required
To review: states can’t file for Chapter 9. Creditors can’t petition for a municipality to be declared bankrupt; the entity does so voluntarily. Then the municipality has to prove it is insolvent and can’t pay its bills. It also has to show that it has tried to avoid bankruptcy through negotiations.
And municipalities have to be authorized to file. More than half the states don’t allow it. Most of those that do allow municipalities to file for bankruptcy discourage it. Long before public officials take the march up the courthouse steps, states find it in their best interest to intervene.
Now, why do you think that is? Conspiracy theorists may say that it’s because public officials want to protect other public officials and local government in general against the taxpayers’ desire for a less taxed, more unfettered life.
Grow up.
The reason bankruptcy is so rare in the municipal market is because it could blow up the borrowing costs of every government in a state, as well as the state itself.
‘Breathing Space’
“It’s not a strategy,” said Orrick’s Knox in an interview Jan. 4. “All Chapter 9 does is give you breathing space to rearrange your affairs.”
That includes a municipality’s general obligation debt and, yes, collective-bargaining agreements. The bankruptcy judge is there to help the parties negotiate a plan of adjustment, not as some avenging angel intent on gutting the police union.
Full-service municipalities don’t enter Chapter 9 in order to liquidate or to fire the entire department of sanitation. They do so in order to continue as going civic concerns.
“It is important that services essential to the city be able to be provided in an efficient, effective and affordable manner,” Spiotto said in an e-mail this week.
So even if a judge rejects some collective-bargaining agreements, the municipality will still be talking to the people who provide police, fire and sanitation services.
Remain Adults
“The best solution,” Spiotto said, “is a negotiated resolution where both sides retain their adult state, recognize what is reasonable, attainable and affordable and recognize what promises can be lived up to and what cannot.”
I like his reference to “adult state.”
Those who espouse widespread municipal bankruptcy to free America from the tyranny of teachers, librarians, police and firefighters don’t seem to live there. They live in an inflamed fantasyland.
Let’s all go bust! That will show them! As American writer H.L. Mencken once wrote: “There is always a well-known solution to every human problem -- neat, plausible, and wrong.”
Joe Mysak is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)
To contact the writer of this column: Joe Mysak in New York at jmysakjr@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this column: James Greiff at jgreiff@bloomberg.net

Thursday, January 20, 2011

China's Celtic Tiger

China's Economy, Is it for real or just another Celtic Tiger. In any
Western Economy Housing as has just being proven in Ireland and
the United States is the underpinning force of the Economy. So why
is there 64 Million new homes sitting empty in China. The Chinese
Government had to keep the party going and keep everyone working
to stop civil unrest. This meant building many new completely empty
cities. Sounds to me like the Bubbles of all Bubbles. What do the
Chart say.




Above, China's 600 Stock Index on a weekly basis. It declined in Synch with the
Global economy and actually bottomed much later than Mar 2009 , bottomimg
in November 2009. It looks to be consolidating with another big leg up.






Above , looking at the same Index using a method of charting called
point & Figure we see that the price projection is for the Index is to
rise to around 39,000 from its current 30,000. As a comparison
the Down Jones Industrial using the same method is projected to
 rise to just over 13,000 from its current 11,800.




If History Is A Guide Than Chinese Construction Investment Has To Hit The Wall

If the history of Asian development is anything to go by, China is about to hit an investment wall and its loans to the property and construction sectors are about to collapse, according to Nomura.

Nomura on China:
Then there is the overcapacity issue. Other Asian economies (Japan, Korea, Singapore, and Thailand) have hit the wall on investment share of GDP at the seven- to eight-year mark. The building out of railway network has reached art form status. Individuals facing negative real deposit rates save via housing, but prices are declining with an uncertain tail risk and negative liquidity conditions.
Home prices may be declining, but inflation is skyrocketing. Societe Generale think the country should anticipate an "inflation break-out," as monetary policy is now lagging too far behind the current problem.
Even if China does get around to the aggressive rate hikes Societe Generale suggest, Nomura's Fred Goodwin warns, "monetary policy is a blunt tool, prone to accidents."
One thing that now seems likely: the massive growth in construction and real estate loans as a percent of Chinese GDP appears ready to head the opposite way.
See More Charts Of The Day 

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

The Daily Dow, Weekly Dow And The End Of A Journey


                                                          
             The Dow is barging ahead to complete its last leg up.
             From the bottom of June/2010 count 5 legs up. You
             will see that Leg5 is almost equal to Leg1 in size.
             Also notice the negative divergence between the current
             price and the indicator underneath the price.
             The Pattern is almost complete but still needs more time.

             Now look at the very top chart (weekly) and once again you
             will see a Negative Divergence. Still needs more time to complete
             and turn down and when it does that will be the beginning of the
             next hugh leg down in the Markets and Global Markets but worse
             than the led down beginning in mid 2007 and ending Mar/2009.

                                                       

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

WHO BROKE AMERICA lost jobs,created unemployment,food stamps,social security,pensions,job search,resumes

                                    VALUE IS IN THE EYES OF THE BEHOLDER

Lets create a Market for IBM stock. Lets say there are exactly 1 million holders of IBM stock
and there all in bed one very fine morning when the Markets open, that is except for exactly 2
owners of the stock who are wide awake and pondering their money problems. One guy
figures, if only I had more money I could buy a pack of smokes, where in the name of god am
I going to find $1 dollar to buy a pack of smokes. Then he remembers he owns exactly one
share of IBM stock. By this time his nicotine fit has driven him up the wall and he is tearing
his hair out, somebody give me a cigarette he shouts. Enough is enough, he's taking no more
bull so he decides to sell his 1 share of IBM stock. He calls his Broker and sais "Sell my 1
share of IBM stock "AT THE MARKET" a legal stock market term for accept anything you
can get, normally the spread is fairly tight except for the other 1 MILLION less 2 owners of
the stock are in bed so there are no standing offers in the Market except for MR Scrooge the
other guy in the story, he's wide awake and wants to buy IBM for little or nothing, so he
already has a standing offer in the Market for exactly 1 share of IBM stock for you guessed it
1$...yes thats right one dollar. The Broker repeats back the order to "Sell At The Market" and
Mr Nicotine Fit sais yes let it fly.

And so there you have it Mr Nicotine Fit has just sold IBM stock for exactly one dollar,
it was previously trading at $100 dollars, yes you read that right 100 dollars. What happened,
how can that happen. Well the other 1 Million owners less 2 were in bed and there was only 2
people in the Market and it only takes 2 people to agree on price or value. Mr Nicotine Fit
established the new value of 1$ for 1 share of IBM stock.

So the other 1 Million guys wake up and check their share price and scream blue murder
" What happened".Therin lies the lesson of you got it "LIQUIDITY"

LIQUIDTY or NO LIQUIDITY is the absense of particpation in a market such
that transactions cannot be concluded.

Thats how America went broke, first starting with Enron, then Long
Term Capital Management, and you got it the Mortgage Market Meltdown
ALL BY THE USE OF DERIVATIVES IN THE PRESENCE OF
NO LIQUIDITY.

The difference between the example of Mr Nicotine fit selling IBM stock which was worth
$100 for $1 a 99% drop and Derivatives are miles apart in the sense that a 5% move will
wipe out any Derivative bet so it doesnt take much imagination to figure out how a 5% move
can happen in any Market like the Mortgage Market. I used to trade Options on Stocks and
Indices like the Dow Jones Industrial Average and then came the the Crash of October 19th
1987 and the Dow dropped 508 point or 22% in 1 business day. So you see a drop of 22%
would wipe out any Derivative bet 4 times over.

So now you are probly wondering, thats crazy , who invented or allowed these Derivatives
to happen and be traded by Banks with DEPOSITOR'S MONEY I might add.

To understand that we need to travel back in time and the year was 1933, just at the bottom
of the crash which began in 1929.

Crashes or Booms and Busts has always being a feature of Markets going back to the
Roman Empire, and throughout European history including the Tulip Mania and the
Mississipi South Sea Bubble. There is always a different reason for a crash each time, it just
so happens that derivatives were at the root cause, but you must remember at the end of the
day its a game like football and for any game you need a referee that enforces the rules, ah yes
the rules, we forgot about the rules, but who sets the rules.

1933-THE GLASS-STEGALL ACT
The act was brought into play to create a chinese wall between Banking
as we used to know it and Investment Banking meaning Banks at that time
investing in Stocks and Bonds with depositors money which left the banks
broke when the Market crashed in 1929.

It was a very wise act and imposed strict rules on Banks and their limitations
to gamble with depositors money.

Then just like the NFL the Game began, but we need some players, so lets
 pick some of the players involved. The NFL has its Rules until their changed
 that is, so who changed the rules in the Markets.

WHO CHANGED THE RULES.
The Markets recovered from the crash of 1929 but not before many mini
crashes along the way.The American Economy was chugging along with lots
of Dollars flooding the World. The year is now 1971 and then President
Richard Nixon decided that Gold then pegged at $35 an ounce was an impediment
to progress because there was not enough Gold in Fort Knox to back all the
Dollars flying around the World being held by Foreign Governments so Nixon set
Gold free from the Dollar. Gold soared to over $800 an ounce by 1981 and then
came along the Reagan Era now thats where the real story begins.

REAGAN ERA.
Reagan decided that the de-regulation of Markets was the way to go to enable free
trade so he set out on a course of action that would put America in Peril and bring
it to its knees with the aid of Clinton.

It was during the Reagan Era that it was proposed to repeal or cancel the
Glass-Stegall-Act to allow Banks to invest in exotic instruments which were invented
in 1973 by the financial engineers.
Reagan was being advised by guess who, you wont believe it Milton Friedman and
under Clinton who was advising Clinton, you guessed it Alan Greenspan.
Both economists were from the School Of  Rational Expectations  in which Markets
find an Equilibrium the way water floats in a pool.

Clinton repealed the Glass-Stegall-Act in 1994 because he agreed fundementally
with Reagan that Markets must find their own equilibrium and so now
THE REAL GAME IS ON, BRING OUT THE PLAYERS.

We need some players so lets create a wee list of the culprits.

STARTING AT THE TOP.
REAGAN AND CLINTON
FEDERAL RESERVE
INVESTMENT BANKS:
JP MORGAN
MORGAN STANLEY
LEHMAN BROTHERS
BEAR STEARNS
AIG
FANNIE MAE
FREDDY MAC
FDIC

So now with the Glass-Stegall-Act removed the investments banks set
their financial engineers to work.
As an aside issue, Alan Greenspan was working diligently as a Director
of JP Morgan before he became Federal Reserve Chairman and he
lobbied very hard indeed to have the Act repealed.

Continued tomorrow.......

Monday, January 17, 2011

American Voters Should Pay Attention To Which Party Is Making or Losing Them Money, Dont Forget Now, Its Your Childrens And Grandchildrens Future, Your Legacy.

When I woke up this morning I was excited about what subject I will write about today and then I reminded myself. What do Americans care about? There are so many issues to write about, issues that affect the American people to their very core, the destruction of their wealth, job, security, house, dignity, self respect. If their was somebody in your life , in your families life stirring it up so to speak you would waste no time in taking action in pointing this out and correcting that individuals behavior.

Why is then that Americans are so willing to let one political party or another destroy their lives and their families lives, take away their Job and Their House and Dignity. So this blog will be the beginning of a series of Blogs to investigate the facts, not opinion, the facts as to what Political Party is responsible for bringing America to its knees. So here we go. The question is as follows:

WHICH POLITICAL PARTY MADE OR LOST MONEY IN THE MARKETS SINCE 1929 WHICH FEEDS INTO PENSIONS, RETIREMENT FUNDS(IRA'S), SAVINGS, AMERICA'S FUTURE. THE ANSWER IS AS FOLLOWS.
October 14, 2008

Bulls, Bears, Donkeys and Elephants


Since 1929, Republicans and Democrats have each controlled the presidency for nearly 40 years. So which party has been better for American pocketbooks and capitalism as a whole? Well, here’s an experiment: imagine that during these years you had to invest exclusively under either Democratic or Republican administrations. How would you have fared?



As of Friday, a $10,000 investment in the S.& P. stock market index* would have grown to $11,733 if invested under Republican presidents only, although that would be $51,211 if we exclude Herbert Hoover’s presidency during the Great Depression. Invested under Democratic presidents only, $10,000 would have grown to $300,671 at a compound rate of 8.9 percent over nearly 40 years.


Sunday, January 16, 2011

JOBS, UNEMPLOYMENT, SOCIAL SECURITY, PENSIONS, HEALTH, JOB SEARCH, RESUMES AND HOW ALL CAN BE AFFECTED DRASTICALLY BY THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE

Ever wonder how the Dow Jones Industrials Index comprised of America's biggest Stocks can affect your life.
Well we all got a taste of that in mid 2007 when the Dow and S&P 500 dropped 50%. I have studied the Dow now for 30 years
and one of my old text books 75 years old sais "There goes GM , There goes the American Economy". Well I'm afraid I'll have to revise that to read " There goes the Dow , There goes the American Economy". Well folks its time again unfortunetely to batten the hatches
because a Tsunami is about to hit the Dow. The current Technical state of the Dow Index itself is almost complete as far as patterns go so now its just a matter of a short time to wait until it turns to the downside. This upcoming leg down will be ONE AND A HALF TIMES BIGGER THAN THE 1ST LEG DOWN FROM THE TOP IN 2007 TO THE MAR/2009 BOTTOM. This is indeed a multi year Bear Market and the green shoots you hear about is all pie in the sky. The |Markets always always precede the Economy, it precedes all the Economic numbers such as Unemployment Claims, GDP,GNP,PPI, Factory Orders. Why is that you might ask.?
Well the Market is the wisdom of millions and millions of some of the brightest minds in the worlds so no Government can outwit or outsmart the Market. So to understand whats going on in the Economy we look at the Technicals of the Markets because its all in the prices as they say, so here goes.

After looking at the technical condition of the Dow and all 30 stocks that comprise the Dow I have drawn the following conclusions.

Completed patternss = 17 stocks....stocks can and will turn to the downside any time.

Near Completed Patterns = 9.....will only take maybe 2-3 months

2 runaway stocks......Exxon Mobil and Procter & Gamble.....Big runaway stocks can prolong an incline or decline.

2 Bear Market stocks.....McDonalds.... which speaks volumes about scarce dollars at the consumer level and Cisco which speaks volumes about the unwillingness of corporations to add IT Hardware and Switches to expand. Onlt other ecplanation is that we are experiencing a real paradigm shift away from Corporations expanding their internal Networks in favour of the "Cloud" in which somebody else takes on responsibility for additional heavy traffic and expansion. Corporations have come to realise this is a cheaper approach and you dont need all those technicians and experts the "Cloud" companies provide that expertise.


Below you will see charts of the Dow and its Component 30 stocks.

Some Terms to understand:

Negative Divergence.......Price Higher than Last High and Macd (underneath price) lower than last high......Very Scary On A Weekly Chart Using This Methology.

Positive Divergence......Price Lower Than Last Low and Macd Higher Than Last High.......No Such situation exists since we bottomed in Mar/2009.


































































 As you can see almost all patterns are complete and maybe the Market Treads water for the Ultimate Bad News Scenario, but one thing is certain, all the money to be made has been made now its purely defensive strategies from here on in. In you are waiting to make a killing , forget it , because this time you will lose 60-70% from here if you are fully invested in Stocks , so Beware